Monday, August 13, 2012

Ryan completes the package

Republicans who were unenthused with the thought of holding their noses this November to cast an anti-Obama vote with Mitt Romney were given a good reason to change their attitude on Saturday.

Paul Ryan brings to the ticket what conservatives have been looking for and what Romney has been lacking: unwavering conservative credentials, bold conviction to put principles into action, and a tea party flavor that is sure to satiate the palate of a right-wing base that has been bitterly disappointed with the Republican presidential nominee thus far. If Romney is serious about endorsing "Paul Ryan-ism", Ryan's addition to the ticket should yield synergies that are sure to give the campaign a badly-needed boost.

Romney's choice is both a bold and surprising one, to be sure. Romney's track record of painfully-obvious pandering and cautious risk-aversion gave speculation to more obvious suspects. Marco Rubio was the clear favorite who would have given much-needed help to Romney among Latino voters and all but locked down a win in the battleground state of Florida. Other more probable candidates included Bobby Jindal, Nikky Haley, or Susana Martinez - safe and easy picks that clearly would have given credence to the assumptions of a Romney campaign strategy obsessed with poll-analysis and aiming for calculated demographic advantages instead of choosing a candidate who is best suited for the job. 

But Romney shocked everyone with this out-of-character decision. By picking House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan, Romney is finally giving his campaign a desperately-needed legitimate conservative vision. 

Sure, Romney has been running with a consistent conservative voice up to this point. But the problem that has dogged him is that his message had been completely baseless (devoid of specific policy proposals), lacking integrity (due to a history of flip-flopping), and not matching a much more moderate record (the individual mandate was whose idea?!). The base wasn't buying it. Independents weren't convinced.

But by picking a proven policy wonk as a running mate, Romney is finally endorsing a specific, substantive, and compelling vision, the cornerstone of which is a detailed, fiscally conservative budget plan that forces the country to make necessary sacrifices to solve a pressing deficit issue - something the traditional old guard of the Republican Party has been too scared to tackle (think John Boehner's opposition to and Newt Gingrich's initial repudiation of the Ryan plan) but that the younger, energetic, and more principled Tea Party base wholeheartedly embraces.

And while this pick was definitely a pleasant surprise, it was also bold - very bold. A Romney-Ryan ticket may make an excellent future governing team, but it may also prove to be a major risk and a difficult sell against a more disciplined Obama campaign that is ready to pounce.

There is no doubt that putting the architect of one of the most controversial pieces of legislation since, well, Obamacare on the ticket is fastening a big bulls-eye on the back of the Romney campaign. Democratic pundits, Obama surrogates, and campaign advisors are giddy with excitement at the prospect of making this election about the "callous" Ryan plan.

It is safe to assume that the vicious attacks and pathetic scare-tactics will start rolling out of the Obama camp right away and continue through election day. Expect Obama to double-down on the strategy of making this election about your grandma's Medicare.

But the Romney camp has to be smarter, better. True conservatives and fiscally-minded independents know that we must reform entitlements before they drag us down into an insurmountable debt crisis. And don't forget that Ryan's proposal for Medicare doesn't threaten current and soon-to-retire seniors and even guarantees some form of Medicare for future generations, albeit a slimmed-down version. Obama's proposals ensure Medicare's imminent demise for both current seniors and future generations.

The debates should provide a great opportunity for the Romney camp to convey that important message to voters. That may be difficult against an Obama team intent on drowning the airwaves with ads of Paul Ryan killing senior citizens. And with an unimpressive and un-disciplined campaign so far, the Romney camp may not be up to the task. Let's hope that they are.

And let's also hope that Romney's VP pick was a genuine endorsement of Paul Ryan. The worst thing Romney could do is sideline his most important asset and cower from attacks from Obama and a Republican establishment that is afraid to endorse the necessary reforms that Ryan proposes. It would be a typical and unfortunately predictable move for Romney to backtrack on a bold and risky decision and to safely retreat into his familiar corner of ambiguity. That would undoubtedly ensure his defeat.

Even worse is the idea that a Romney presidency would effectively ignore Ryan's vision altogether once in the White House, thereby extinguishing any chance of the necessary reforms Ryan proposes and that the country desperately needs. 

Might have it been better for Ryan to turn down Romney's offer and stay in the House of Representatives where he, with the Republican majority, could push legislation onto a Romney White House that may be too cowardice and risk-averse to initiate themselves?  Let's hope not.

The value-add that Ryan provides to the ticket should be paraded to the American people by Romney and his campaign. This will energize the base, win over independents, and inspire confidence that this is a team that can and will govern boldly and effectively.

The package is complete. Now it's time to deliver.

2 comments:

  1. FIRST

    (Nick, that's nerd for "I'm the first commenter, I'm awesome." Glad we settled that.)

    Very well-written.

    One issue I have, though-- I loved the first half. However, once you go down the Obama mudslinging path, I had issues (maybe that is just one man's opinion). Your characterization of the tenor of his campaign recently is accurate. But, out of fairness, shouldn't you also note the tone of the Romney campaign from Day One? I dislike the negative Obama ads as much as you but I don't think you're giving the public a fair picture by looking at only one side. You're also portraying a candidate who has an excellent record of positive campaigning (and not only in '08! There have been positive Obama ads, just the balance has shifted since 08) as exclusively negative, which I find misleading. You can't mention the "killing senior citizens" advertisement potential and ignore all the "death panel" bluster the Republicans harped on for months (and I doubt we've seen the last of that absurd phrase). Then again, it's your blog, your views-- just my opinion.

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  2. Interesting view here Nicholas, and what I read from it is that you believe Romney had no shot at winning the white house...even with the most expected running mates (Rubio/Jindal/etc).

    If they (the Romney camp or truly any Presidential campaign team) can't effectively run a campaign, do you believe they can run a country? They have a message but without effectively communicating that message how can they shape and mold policy at the federal level?

    I guess that's the question...winning the office of President is just as much about people subconsciously observing the candidates ability to formulate, communicate, and effect his/her ideas at the campaign level which is extrapolated to a broader "can he run this country?"

    Obama in '08 was not only likable (not to be confused with agreeable politically), but he is one of the best orators and motivators we have seen in recent political history. He energized who was at the time a defeated and out of touch base (young voters), which mobilized them to overbear a miserable attempt by the GOP and a McCain/Palin ticket. (Sidebar: interestingly and perhaps thankfully McCain and many GOP pundits have admitted the severe misstep that was adding Sarah "Hockey Mom" Palin to the ticket)

    Can Romney/Ryan leverage their new strength via Paul Ryan's "vision"? Can they effectively communicate their plan so that the attempts by the Obama camp to poison the water are diluted? Can they display their ability to plan, layout, act, and lead in a manner that has not happened in the last 4 (arguably much longer than 4 into the Bush 43) years?

    If you can get three "yes" answers, greener pastures for Lady Liberty are on the other side of the election trail...

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